The 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 11 Update

Photo via Tyler Wise

Welcome everyone to the Week 11 update of the 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen and the 2021 season for both positions. In the past I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White. This season I wanted to use the player fourth on the all-time sack list and one of my favorite pass-rushers of all-time, Julius Peppers.

Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Depending on a variety of different factors, player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting, and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Laremy Tunsil) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2021) Saints DE Cameron Jordan beating Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs 1v1 with a stab-chop move strung together with a bull-rush for a strip sack. Jordan received an additional .5 points for forcing the fumble for a total of 1.75 (1.25 RHQ + .5 forced fumble).

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2022): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a stab-club move to win 1v1 vs. Giants LG Joshua Ezeudu.

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2022): Texans edge-rusher Jerry Hughes unblocked in pursuit being the first defender to touch an already down QB.

.5 points: Coverage / Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2022): Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack getting a free run at the QB and cleaning up a missed sack by linebacker Drue Tranquill.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through the first 11 games, a few notes:

• 460 sacks by 93 players have been graded so far.

• All stats are from Pro Football Reference and TruMedia.

• Only players with two or more sacks will be graded.

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using Browns edge-rusher Myles Garrett’s individual player sheet:

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into some of the results and takeaways through the first 11 weeks of the 2022 season.

Edge Results through Week 11

*All graphics made by John Pulice.

Listed below is the top 28 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 4.5).

• Micah Parsons took the NFL lead in sack score in the Week 7 update and still hasn’t relinquished it. Now at 10.5, Parsons is just 1.0 behind his score of 11.5 from the 2021 season. The main difference with the second-year pro’s sack production this season (aside from the higher total) is that every sack this year has come rushing in a wide-9 alignment, whereas Parsons had sacks from five different alignments in 2021. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has rightfully decided to stick Parsons on the edge in a more full-time role this season and has maximized what he does best in the process. The record for sack score in TSR since I started charting in 2020 is 17.5 by Robert Quinn last season, a number Parsons could feasibly reach against a subpar slate of offensive line units the rest of the year (ex: Titans, Commanders, Giants, Colts, Texans, Jaguars).

• Alex Highsmith’s sack score jumped from 6.5 to 9.5 since the last update to put him in second place. Highsmith was in first place in the first update of the season back in Week 3 and has hung around since then before having another surge of production over the last two weeks (three sacks, two of them high-quality). Highsmith has six total HQ sacks this season, three of which have come from using his top counter move, the inside spin.

• There have been ten total RHQ sacks this season (five from the edge-rusher position & five from the interior). Two of them occurred since the last update, one from Jets edge-rusher Carl Lawson and the other from Cowboys defensive lineman Dorance Armstrong. Both sacks came from each rusher using an awesome display of power. Lawson used his signature inside stab/bull-rush to lift Patriots LT Trent Brown (approximately 360 pounds) off of his feet in Week 11 and Armstrong’s bull-rushed Vikings LT Christian Darrisaw into QB Kirk Cousins.

• Just two edge-rushers inside the top 28 in sack score have ended drives on 100% of their sacks so far this season. This means their sacks came in one of three ways; third down to force a punt, fourth down to force turnover on downs or from a strip sack that the defense recovered:

  • Haason Reddick (8x)

  • Carl Lawson (6x)

• Here’s the draft slot breakdown of the top 28 players in the sack score rankings:

  • 1st rounders: 13

  • 2nd rounders: 2

  • 3rd rounders: 5

  • 4th rounders: 7

  • 5th rounders: 1

  • 6th rounders: 0

  • 7th rounders: 0

  • UDFAs: 0

• There are 10 total players inside the top 28 in sack score that are 25-years old or younger: (Name-Age-Rank)

  • Micah Parsons - 23.5 - 1st

  • Alex Highsmith - 25.3 - 2nd

  • Maxx Crosby - 25.3 - T-7th

  • Nick Bosa - 25.1 - 10th

  • Brian Burns - 24.6 - T-11th

  • Dorance Armstrong - 25.5 - 15th

  • Rashan Gary - 25 - T-21st

  • Uchenna Nwosu - 25.9 - T-21st

  • Rashad Weaver - 25.1 - T-21st

  • Josh Sweat - 25.7 - T-26th

• Edge-rushers charted (minimum of two sacks) with zero HQ sacks and at least 40% of snaps played: Samson Ebukam (50%) & D.J. Wonnum (45%).

Top ten in snaps/sack among edge rushers (minimum 200 snaps):

• Justin Houston is leading the NFL in fewest snaps per sack at 20.2 with ten total sacks on just 207 snaps played. Houston only has two HQ sacks on the season but is having an extremely productive year by the raw numbers in a part-time role. He is steadily climbing up the all-time sack leaderboard in the process (currently 25th with 111 career sacks).

  • Houston’s sack chart so far this season