The 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 7 Update

Photo via Tyler Wise

Welcome everyone to the Week 7 update of the 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen and the 2021 season for both positions. In the past I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White. This season I wanted to use the player fourth on the all-time sack list and one of my favorite pass-rushers of all-time, Julius Peppers.

Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Depending on a variety of different factors, player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting, and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Laremy Tunsil) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2021) Saints DE Cameron Jordan beating Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs 1v1 with a stab-chop move strung together with a bull-rush for a strip sack. Jordan received an additional .5 points for forcing the fumble for a total of 1.75 (1.25 RHQ + .5 forced fumble).

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2022): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a stab-club move to win 1v1 vs. Giants LG Joshua Ezeudu.

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2022): Texans edge-rusher Jerry Hughes unblocked in pursuit being the first defender to touch an already down QB.

.5 points: Coverage / Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2022): Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack getting a free run at the QB and cleaning up a missed sack by linebacker Drue Tranquill.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through the first seven games, a few notes:

• 301 sacks by 79 players have been graded so far.

• All stats are from Pro Football Reference and TruMedia.

• Only players with two or more sacks will be graded.

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using Steelers edge-rusher Alex Highsmith’s individual player sheet:

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into some of the results and takeaways through the first five weeks of the 2022 season.

Edge Results through Week 7

*All graphics made by John Pulice.

Listed below is the top 30 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 3).

• Cowboys edge-rusher and second-year pro Micah Parsons broke away from the pack since the Week 5 update when he was tied with Eagles Haason Reddick for first place and now holds the top spot by a significant margin over Browns Myles Garrett. When studying Parsons on film the thing that jumps out most is his ability to threaten outside, down the middle and inside with near equal effectiveness (of Parsons seven HQ sacks this season four have come rushing outside and three inside, across a tackles face). Parsons has enough power to make tackles respect it and he can change directions so suddenly that if blockers stop their feet to anchor they are typically left looking at the back of his jersey.

• Myles Garrett more than doubled his sack score over the last two weeks thanks to two HQ sacks, a forced fumble and one rare HQ sack (against Patriots LT Trent Brown) that shot his sack score from three to 6.75. Garrett has been a menace again this season despite being double and triple-teamed at an unmatched rate. Now the sack numbers are starting to match his disruption level after leading the NFL in sack score last season and being tied for first over the last two years combined with T.J. Watt among edge-rushers.

• The top 12 overall (Parsons-Trey Hendrickson) is a star-studded group and then there’s Steelers Alex Highsmith sitting at third overall in sack score. Highsmith’s get-off has always been eye-catching on film, but this year his spin and ghost moves have been a lethal combination that has accounted for three of his four HQ sacks and a bulk of his pressures as a rusher. The most notable aspect of Highsmith’s production is that it has been accomplished without T.J. Watt in the lineup. Once Watt returns over the next few weeks the Steelers should have one of the most potent edge-rushing duos in the NFL thanks to Highsmith’s ascension.

• Bills Von Miller is the only rusher inside the top 12 that has played under 250 snaps (227). The ability to be kept fresh throughout games paired with having the best offense in the NFL on the other side of the ball has resulted in an incredibly efficient season for the future Hall of Famer in Buffalo (Miller ranks second in snaps per sack among rushers with at least 150 snaps played behind only 49ers Nick Bosa this season). I talked to Miller’s trainer Chuck Smith this off-season and Smith accurately pointed out how devastating Miller would be on a pitch count with a consistent lead to unleash him as a rusher.

• Lions rookie and last year’s second overall pick Aidan Hutchinson shot up the rankings since the last update thanks to his best game as a pro last week against the Cowboys. Hutchinson notched two HQ sacks from each side of the line of scrimmage, one rushing outside and one inside crossing the tackle’s face. Hutchinson has been flashing all season long but hadn’t been getting home in time for it matter or show up on the stat-sheet. Now that it has it will be interesting to see what he can do against two elite left tackles in Terron Armstead and David Bakhtiari over the next two weeks (when he is rushing over their side and assuming both tackles are healthy).

• Five edge-rushers have ended drives on 100% of their sacks so far this season. This means their sacks came in one of three ways; third down to force a punt, fourth down to force turnover on downs or from a strip sack that the defense recovered:

  • Haason Reddick (5x)

  • Cameron Jordan (5x)

  • Carl Lawson (4x)

  • Josh Sweat (3x)

• The divisions ranked by most players in the top 30 in sack score:

  • NFC East - 7

  • AFC East - 5

  • AFC West - 4

  • AFC North - 4

  • NFC North - 3

  • AFC South - 3

  • NFC West - 2

  • NFC South - 2