The 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 3
The 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 3
Welcome everyone to the first installment of the 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.
If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen and the 2021 season for both positions. In the past I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White. This season I wanted to use the player fourth on the all-time sack list and one of my favorite pass-rushers of all-time, Julius Peppers.
Introduction
From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Depending on a variety of different factors, player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading.
Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.
By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting, and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.
Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.
The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:
1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Laremy Tunsil) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.
Example: (2021) Saints DE Cameron Jordan beating Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs 1v1 with a stab-chop move strung together with a bull-rush for a strip sack. Jordan received an additional .5 points for forcing the fumble for a total of 1.75 (1.25 RHQ + .5 forced fumble).
1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.
Example (2022): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a stab-club move to win 1v1 vs. Giants LG Joshua Ezeudu.
.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.
Example (2022): Texans edge-rusher Jerry Hughes unblocked in pursuit being the first defender to touch an already down QB.
.5 points: Coverage / Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.
Example (2022): Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack getting a free run at the QB and cleaning up a missed sack by linebacker Drue Tranquill.
Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.
Before we get into the 2022 rankings, a few notes:
120 sacks by 50 players have been graded so far.
All stats are from Pro Football Reference and TruMedia.
Only players with two or more sacks will be graded.
Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.
Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.
If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.
If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.
This will be a weekly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.
Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using Steelers edge-rusher Alex Highsmith’s individual player sheet:
Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into some of the results and takeaways through the first 3 weeks of the 2022 season.
Edge Results through Week 3
*All graphics made by John Pulice.
Listed below is the top 22 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 2).
Highsmith has started the year on a tear and is the league leader among edge-rushers (plus overall, but we’ll get there shortly) in sack score thanks to a potent spin move that has accounted for three of his five sacks and two of his three high-quality sacks. Highsmith is being moved around the line of scrimmage in the Steelers exotic pressure packages and is stepping up in place of the injured reigning Defensive Player of the Year (T.J. Watt) in a major way. Highsmith also has the ghost move in his repertoire as a rusher which tackles have to respect, helping increase the effectiveness of his inside spin move.
Looking ahead, Highsmith won’t see a great lineup of left tackles this season and should have plenty of opportunities to continue being a productive rusher. Over his next three games he is facing the Jets and LT Conor McDermott who is stepping in for the injured George Fant, Bills LT Dion Dawkins and the Bucs who may or may not have starting LT Donovan Smith back from injury.
Parsons has continued to build off of an electric rookie season in 2021 and all four of his sacks this season used different moves and are high-quality. Teammate DeMarcus Lawrence is also batting a thousand with his sacks with all three of his being high-quality. The Cowboys do an excellent job of diversifying their fronts to keep protection schemes honest and put their rushers in great positions to succeed, but their star edge-rushers’ versatility is the key that unlocks it all.
All seven of Parsons & D-Law’s seven HQ sacks:
Hendrickson is ranked in the top three after a monster game in Week 3 where he racked up three strip sacks (two HQ) against the Jets. All three were using a variation of a chop or club-rip move around the corner.
Josh Sweat also deserves recognition for having all three of his sacks be high-quality, each one ending drives for opponents. Sweat aligns in a 4-point stance as a wide 9 alignment on the majority of snaps and has sacks as a looper on a stunt, using a power pop-club and chop moves. Sweat has always shown rare talent when studying his film, it is just a matter of staying healthy for the bulk of games so his production can match. He’s off to a great start through three games to make that happen.
Here is the top ten in snaps/sack among edge rushers:
Even though its early, Bills fans have to be excited to see their second-year former first-round pick Gregory Rousseau second in the NFL in snaps per sack. He’s already .5 a sack behind his total of four from his 2021 rookie season.
Reminder: Rousseau officially has 3.5 sacks but four sacks for the TSR due to counting most half sacks as full sacks if it was determined the rusher beat the blocker and/or would have taken down the QB without help from a teammate.
Brandon Graham is the oldest edge-rusher in the NFL with at least two sacks. Despite playing just 41% of the Eagles’ snaps this season as part of a deep rotation, Graham is still proving to be one of the most underrated edge-rushers in football. Graham’s two high-quality sacks have come against Lions RT Penei Sewell and Commanders RT Sam Cosmi using power pop-club and stab-chop moves. Graham also ranks third in snaps per pressure (one pressure every nine snaps).
Here is the HQ stab-chop sack against Cosmi:
Here is the top ten in snaps/HQ sacks among edge-rushers:
Top ten in total HQ sacks among edge-rushers:
Aside from the sack score, this category is the most indicative of which rushers have the most sacks showing the highest degree of skill.
Interior DL Results through Week 3
Listed below is the current top 16 in ‘sack score’ among interior DL in the NFL (minimum score of 1).
Fletcher Cox has already matched his total and HQ sack numbers from the 2021 season through just three games this year. Cox is not only healthy after battling lower half injuries last year, but his snap percentage is down to 56% from 66% last year, helping to keep him fresh throughout games. Cox still has elite power with juice off the line to force guards to respect his speed.
Cox’s three HQ sacks:
I have long had a crush on Grady Jarrett the football player for his rare blend of processing skills, quickness and high motor that has resulted in some spectacular plays over his career, but they have primarily come defending the run as opposed to rushing the passer. This has led to him being criminally underrated in the mainstream media. Jarrett came out on fire as a rusher this season with three HQ sacks after recording just one total sack in 17 games last year.
Daron Payne is in a contract year for the Commanders and is playing like it. He had a dominant performance in Week 3 against the Lions and has two HQ sacks so far this season, including the only rare high-quality sack from an interior rusher.
Payne’s RHQ sack against Jaguars RG Brandon Scherff in Week 1 using an inside swipe move:
Bills DT Jordan Phillips started the year on a tear before injuring his hamstring in Week 2 and missing Week 3’s game. He’s doubtful to play in Week 4. Before the injury, Phillips had two sacks (one HQ) and averaged a pressure every 7.5 snaps. It will be very interesting to monitor his play once he returns later this season to see if he can sustain what was the best football of his career.
Here is the top ten in snaps/sack among interior DL:
Here is the top ten in snaps/HQ sack among interior DL:
Top ten in total HQ sacks among interior DL:
Top 28 Overall through Week 3 (minimum sack score of ‘2’):
There is only one player in the top 26 overall drafted outside of the first four rounds of the NFL draft (Grady Jarrett), which speaks to the importance of draft capital when trying to get production out of pass-rushers largely due to the high baseline of physical traits and athletic ability needed to consistently get home as a pass-rusher in the NFL.
These rankings will likely go through a dramatic reshuffling as the weeks go by, but relatively unknown or surprising names such as Dorance Armstrong, Deatrich Wise Jr., Rashad Weaver and Jerry Hughes are worth paying attention to in the upcoming weeks to see if they can continue to get home on the QB at a high level.
Some notable players not graded due to having less than 2.0 sacks so far this season:
Cameron Jordan, Yannick Ngakoue, Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt (injured), Jonathan Allen, Robert Quinn (first overall in sack score in 2021), Javon Hargrave, and Chandler Jones.
Tracking active players inside the top 100 all-time in career sacks:
T.J. Watt - 73 (92nd)
Khalil Mack - 80.5 (76th)
Jason Pierre-Paul - 91.5 (53rd)
Calais Campbell - 94.5 (51st)
Carlos Dunlap - 98 (41st)
Aaron Donald - 100 (39th)
Robert Quinn - 102 (35th)
Justin Houston & J.J. Watt - 104 (32nd)
Chandler Jones - 107.5 (26th)
Cameron Jordan - 108 (25th)
Von Miller - 117.5 (22nd)
*This first edition of the TSR is free for everyone to read, but you will need to become a paid subscriber if you want to have access to this series and much more for the rest of the season.