The 2021 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 18 Update (Final rankings + bonus content)

Welcome back everyone for the Week 18 update to the TSR. A full explanation of this project with a detailed definition of terms can be found here. If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rusher and interior D-line.

My objective with the TSR is to identify which rushers utilized the highest level of skill against the most difficult set of circumstances to record a sack. We will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the position through this process.

First, a few notes:

• 815 sacks by 131 players have been charted and graded.

• All sacks are graded with the end zone and/or sideline copies of the film.

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Sacks were not counted if the QB got back to the line of scrimmage.

• All graphs are made by John Pulice. A special thank you to Justin Scarpaci for building the formulas inside Google sheets to help make this project come alive.

Edge Results through Week 18

Listed below is the final top 44 in ‘sack score’ among edge defenders in the NFL (minimum score of 5).

• Robert Quinn finishes atop the leaderboard with a sack score of 17.5 a year after having just two sacks to complete one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent memory. Quinn was a dynamic presence off the edge for the Bears this season despite Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks missing a combined 18 games. Opponents were able to key in on Quinn and he still was able to blow by tackles for 20 sacks and a league-leading 11 of them high-quality using a special blend of get-off, quickness, bend and a potent collection of moves.

• The Bosa brothers both finished inside the top five in sack score and somehow are two of the four or five most skilled edge-rushers in the NFL. Each player has an uncanny understanding of how to adapt their pass-rush plan on the fly based on the specific weakness or error of the tackle they are facing.
  
  Nick Bosa finished the year tied with Myles Garrett for the second most high-quality sacks (nine) in the NFL and eight of those were either using his vaunted forklift technique, bull-rush or going inside with a stutter club-rip. While Nick is more of a power-oriented rusher that can win outside, Joey is a little more diverse in his approach with a higher likelihood of going outside first. Four of Joey’s seven high-quality sacks came going outside with either a side-scissors, club-swim, stab-club, or power pop moves to the corner.

• Cowboys rookie Micah Parsons finished tied for 6th overall in sack score with Chandler Jones and he did it from a an unmatched number of alignments. Of Parsons’ 14 sacks, five came as an off-ball linebacker, six from a wide-9 alignment, one as a 3-technique, one as a 7-technique and one shaded over the center as a 1-technique. Parsons was electric this season and his impact is accurately reflected in my charting and in the final rankings.

• Cameron Jordan finished the season on an absolute tear with nine sacks over the last four weeks of the season and had an eye-popping bounce back season after a bit of a downturn in 2020. Jordan finished 8th in sack score with seven high-quality sacks and a league-leading two rare high-quality sacks, both against Bucs right tackle Tristan Wirfs. At nearly 33-years old with two missed games in his 11 year career, 175 regular season starts and 107 sacks, Jordan is building an increasingly strong case for the Hall of Fame when it is all said and done.

• Carlos Dunlap finished tied at 16th in sack score with Jadeveon Clowney and is the third oldest player in the top 44 leaderboard. Dunlap also went on a late season tear like Jordan, racking up eight of his nine sacks over the last six games. The stunning part about Dunlap’s season was that he managed to be as effective of a rusher as he was despite only playing 38% (481 total) of the teams’ snaps compared to Jordan’s 74% (830 total).
  
  Dunlap wins using some of the longest arms of any edge-rusher in the NFL (34 5/8) with underrated power that allows him to initiate first meaningful contact and create jarring force in his bull-rush. All five of his high-quality sacks this season have come either using the bull-rush (three) or going inside with either an inside club or rip moves (two). Dunlap is still a highly effective and potent part of a rotation that has a borderline dominant signature move and ability to win down the middle or inside against all levels of competition.

• Cowboys edge-rusher Randy Gregory was similarly as proficient as Dunlap and finished tied for 17th in sack score also playing just 38% (437 total) of the teams’ snaps. Gregory is a very different rusher than Dunlap, winning primarily by being twitched up out of his mind with elite level burst, lateral quickness and explosive power. Gregory has an element of power to his game like Dunlap to win down the middle and inside (three of his five high-quality sacks), but is also more of an outside threat as well (the remaining two came using a club-swim and cross-chop moves).

• The two most surprising breakout players that I wanted to mention were 49ers edge-rusher Arden Key and Bears edge-rusher Trevis Gipson. Each player is 25 or younger with at least three high-quality sacks (Key/five HQ, Gipson/three HQ) playing less than 50% of the teams’ snaps (Key/35%/374 total, Gipson/46%/489 total). Key is also set to become an unrestricted free agent while Gipson just finished the second year of his rookie deal as a former 5th round pick. These are two of the young, relatively unknown or forgotten rushers that have legit moves in their arsenal that make them potent weapons with enough of a runway to still have upside to get better.

• It is worth mentioning how impressive it is that both Vikings edge-rushers Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter finished on this top leaderboard despite each playing less than 40% of their teams’ snaps. Griffen and Hunter were having phenomenal seasons that were cut short due to injury or off the field issues. Hunter will likely be able to recclaim his status as one of the game’s few elite rushers off the edge, but it is fair to wonder about Griffen’s status given that he is the oldest player on the list at nearly 35-years old. Purely from an on-field perspective, he certainly still has enough juice to be an efficient role player at the very least.

• Edge-rusher is as reliant on athletic ability as almost any position in football so it makes sense that the resources needed to obtain the best players are significant. This is on display in the “Round drafted” tab as only eight players in the top 44 overall in sack score were drafted past the first two days (4th round or later) of the draft. This is just a reminder that if you want to have a dynamic edge-rusher there’s a much higher hit rate the higher they are drafted since the players taken in the first three rounds typically meet or exceed the physical and athletic cut-offs most teams utilize.
  
  *On a side note, I do want to explore this further by adding tabs to the sheet such as arm length, broad jump, vertical leap, etc. so we can assess how the players stack up to one another from a pure athletic and physical standpoint.

• 11 of the top 44 in sack score among edge-rushers are currently set to be unrestricted free agents this off-season:

  • Chandler Jones - 11.5 sack score

  • Haason Reddick - 9 sack score

  • Jadeveon Clowney - 7.5 sack score

  • Randy Gregory, Emmanuel Ogbah - 7 sack score

  • Arden Key, Von Miller, Charles Harris - 6.5 sack score

  • Mario Addison, Dante Fowler - 5.5 sack score

  • Everson Griffen - 5.25 sack score

Top 10 leaders for edge-rushers in most sacks per snap: