The 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 15 Update

Welcome everyone to the Week 15 update of the 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen and the 2021 season for both positions. In the past I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White. This season I wanted to use the player fourth on the all-time sack list and one of my favorite pass-rushers of all-time, Julius Peppers.

Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Depending on a variety of different factors, player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting, and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Laremy Tunsil) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2021) Saints DE Cameron Jordan beating Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs 1v1 with a stab-chop move strung together with a bull-rush for a strip sack. Jordan received an additional .5 points for forcing the fumble for a total of 1.75 (1.25 RHQ + .5 forced fumble).

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2022): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a stab-club move to win 1v1 vs. Giants LG Joshua Ezeudu. Simmons received an additional .5 points for forcing the fumble for a total of 1.50 (1.0 HQ + .5 forced fumble).

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2022): Texans edge-rusher Jerry Hughes unblocked in pursuit being the first defender to touch an already down QB.

.5 points: Coverage / Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2022): Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack getting a free run at the QB and cleaning up a missed sack by linebacker Drue Tranquill.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through the first 15 games, a few notes:

• 619 sacks by 107 players have been graded so far.

• All stats are from Pro Football Reference and TruMedia.

• Only players with two or more sacks will be graded.

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using 49ers edge-rusher Nick Bosa’s individual player sheet:

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into some of the results and takeaways through the first 15 weeks of the 2022 season.

Edge Results through Week 15

*All graphics made by John Pulice.

Listed below is the top 28 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 5.5).

• The top two in edge sack score hasn’t changed from the Week 13 update, but it did get tighter with Myles Garrett closing the gap on Micah Parsons and now within .25 of first place.

  • With Parsons Week 15 sack against Jaguars RG Brandon Scherff, he notched his second rare high-quality sack (RHQ) of the season (the other coming in Week 12 vs. Giants LT Andrew Thomas) and is the only pass-rusher in the NFL with two ‘RHQ’ sacks this year.

• Eagles edge-rusher Haason Reddick led the NFL in sack score back in the Week 5 update and has hung around the top 10 since before exploding over the last two weeks for three HQ sacks (one of them a strip-sack). Reddick has ended drives on 13 of his 14 sacks this season and the lone sack that didn’t was a strip-sack that the opposing offense recovered. Reddick is a lightning quick rusher with underrated power that is arguably the most underrated edge-rusher in the NFL and the TSR has illustrated that over the last three seasons.

  • From the Week 5 update: Reddick finished 11th in the TSR in 2021 with a sack score of 9 and 2nd in 2020 with a sack score of 12.5. The TSR has graded Reddick as an elite-level rusher over the last two seasons and he’s now on pace to exceed both in terms of overall sack production.

    • Reddick’s sack score of ‘13’ this year is now his career high

• The Eagles defensive line as a whole has amassed unprecedented production in the sack department since the TSR’s inception in 2020. Philadelphia’s defensive line room has three edge-rushers ranked inside the top 10 in sack score, plus Javon Hargrave has a sack score of 7.5, ranking fourth among interior rushers and tied for 17th overall. That is an incredible four total pass-rushers that rank in the top 20 overall in sack score. No other team has ever had more than two rank in the top 20. This is yet another testament to the unmatched talent and depth that the Eagles have acquired in the trenches.

• Raiders edge-rusher Maxx Crosby’s sack score of ‘10’ ranks seventh among edge-rushers and he is also playing an astounding 95.7% of the snaps this season which leads the NFL among all defensive linemen. This is the highest percentage of snaps that any defensive lineman has played since 2015 when J.J. Watt played 96.2% of snaps.

• Eagles Brandon Graham is the oldest player on the leaderboard at 34.7 years old and is still as potent as ever in year 13. Graham’s sack score of 9.25 ranks ninth among edge-rushers thanks to six of his 10 total sacks being HQ and he’s doing it playing just 39% of the Eagles’ snaps. Graham is the most efficient part-time sack artist off of the edge in the NFL this season.

• The only other players on the edge leaderboard playing under 40% of their teams’ snaps this season are Patriots Josh Uche and Ravens Justin Houston. The difference in those two is that Uche has five HQ sacks whereas Houston has just two. Uche was highlighted in detail in the last update and continues to emerge as an electric rotational edge-rusher this season.

Top ten in snaps/sack among edge rushers (minimum 300 snaps):

Top ten in snaps/HQ sacks among edge-rushers (minimum 300 snaps):

This metric represents the most skilled and efficient sack artists off the edge through 15 games.

Interior DL Results through Week 15

Listed below is the current top 26 in ‘sack score’ among interior DL in the NFL (minimum score of 3).