The 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 13 Update

Photo via Tyler Wise

Welcome everyone to the Week 13 update of the 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen and the 2021 season for both positions. In the past I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White. This season I wanted to use the player fourth on the all-time sack list and one of my favorite pass-rushers of all-time, Julius Peppers.

Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Depending on a variety of different factors, player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting, and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Laremy Tunsil) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2021) Saints DE Cameron Jordan beating Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs 1v1 with a stab-chop move strung together with a bull-rush for a strip sack. Jordan received an additional .5 points for forcing the fumble for a total of 1.75 (1.25 RHQ + .5 forced fumble).

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2022): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a stab-club move to win 1v1 vs. Giants LG Joshua Ezeudu. Simmons received an additional .5 points for forcing the fumble for a total of 1.50 (1.0 HQ + .5 forced fumble).

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2022): Texans edge-rusher Jerry Hughes unblocked in pursuit being the first defender to touch an already down QB.

.5 points: Coverage / Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2022): Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack getting a free run at the QB and cleaning up a missed sack by linebacker Drue Tranquill.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through the first 13 games, a few notes:

• 549 sacks by 100 players have been graded so far.

• All stats are from Pro Football Reference and TruMedia.

• Only players with two or more sacks will be graded.

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using 49ers edge-rusher Nick Bosa’s individual player sheet:

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into some of the results and takeaways through the first 13 weeks of the 2022 season.

Edge Results through Week 13

*All graphics made by John Pulice.

Listed below is the top 29 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 5).

• The highest sack score still belongs to Micah Parsons (since the Week 7 update) as Parsons continues to average a sack a game with nine of them being high-quality, tied for first in the NFL with Myles Garrett.

• Garrett has climbed up the list, jumping Alex Highsmith for second place since the last update in Week 11 thanks to two high-quality sacks against Bucs LT Donovan Smith in Week 12. He used his elite-level get-off to beat Smith around the corner, both on third down.

  • Garrett’s two HQ sacks against Bucs LT Donovan Smith in Week 12

• Nick Bosa made a sizable leap since the Week 11 update, going from tenth to fourth in sack score thanks to four sacks over that span, including three against a depleted Dolphins O-line in Week 12. Only one of those sacks was high-quality or else his jump would’ve been even more dramatic, but he is now firmly in the race for the league lead as we close out the season. Bosa is also averaging a blistering QB pressure every 8.1 snaps, which is the top mark in the NFL.

• Maxx Crosby had two high-quality sacks since the last update, raising his sack score from nine to 11, good for sixth overall among edge-rushers. Crosby dominated Seahawks rookie RT Abraham Lucas in Week 12 and followed up with eight pressures against the Chargers in Week 13. The fourth-year pro’s most impressive feat is that amidst elite-level production, he is also playing more snaps than any defensive linemen in the NFL this season. Crosby has played in an incredible 95% of the Raiders’ snaps this season, up from 80% in 2021. For context, no other defensive linemen is playing more than 88% of their team’s snaps. Crosby also led all edge-rushers during the 2021 (79.8% of snaps) and 2020 (83.1% of snaps) seasons in percentage of snaps played per Football Outsiders. That is a testament to remarkable focus, effort and stamina that stands out among a deep pool of talent at the edge-rusher position.

  • Crosby’s two HQ sacks against Seahawks RT Abraham Lucas in Week 12

• The biggest riser from the last update is Eagles edge-rusher Josh Sweat, who catapulted himself from a tie for 26th in sack score (4.5) to a tie for eighth in sack score (8) thanks to four sacks over the last two weeks, three of which were high-quality and all against the Titans in Week 13. I have identified Sweat as one of the league’s most talented and underrated pass rushers, and the TSR has also spotlighted his potency as a rusher over the years. This is Sweat’s fifth career season but just his second as a full-time starter. He is capitalizing on it with seven HQ sacks, tied for the second-most at his position with Alex Highsmith. All of Sweat’s seven HQ sacks have ended drives as well (one strip sack, one on 4th down, five on third down), giving him an 88% drive kill percentage, third best in the NFL.

  
  Sweat is outside of the top 25 in raw sack standings, but when you study him on film and grade each sack, it becomes apparent that he possesses physical traits and a skill-set that far exceed surface level statistics. You will also notice the disparity between Sweat having 6.5 ‘official’ sacks and ‘8’ for the TSR. This goes back to counting .5 sacks as full sacks when it’s determined that the rusher would’ve brought down the QB without the help of a teammate, which Sweat certainly proved on each of them (see below). Sweat is exactly the sort of player the TSR was created to identify, spotlight and recognize.

  • Sweat’s three HQ sacks against the Titans in Week 13 (notice Haason Reddick #7 on the third clip. Reddick was also credited with a HQ sack, the rare occurrence when two rushers are given a HQ sack on the same play).

• Tied with Josh Sweat for eighth in sack score is Brian Burns, who has been steadily climbing up the rankings this season and is doing it quietly for a subpar Panthers team. Burns has five HQ sacks compared to Sweat’s seven but is also playing 86% of his team’s snaps (significantly higher than Sweat’s 59%), good for the third highest rate in the league among edge-rushers (behind Crosby and Highsmith). This is a testament to Sweat’s efficiency as a rusher in more of a part-time role and also to Burns’ underrated skill-set as a more complete defensive end that can handle a heavy workload.

• Patriots third-year pro Josh Uche cracked the leaderboard for the first time this season with a sack score of ‘5’ after two HQ sacks over the last two games. Both of those sacks came against backup left tackles (see below), but Uche dusted them with eye-catching explosiveness and bend that he has always flashed. Those traits are resulting in some notable production as well. Uche is only playing 26% of the snaps in New England, but is a higher end talent who is increasing his potency as a part-time rusher. Uche should be on the radar as an ascending player with legitimate juice to continue developing into a more impactful rusher in ensuing seasons.

  • Uche’s two HQ sacks in Weeks 12 and 13, including a ghost technique to beat Bills LT David Quessenberry for a strip-sack

• Just two edge-rushers inside the top 29 in sack score have ended drives on 100% of their sacks so far this season. This means their sacks came in one of three ways; third down to force a punt, fourth down to force turnover on downs or from a strip sack that the defense recovered:

  • Haason Reddick (11x)

  • Carl Lawson (7x)

    • Reddick’s 11 sacks to end drives is the current record since I began charting sacks during the 2020 season. No rusher has finished with 100% of their sacks ending drives since charting began, something both Reddick and Lawson have a shot at accomplishing.