The 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 5 Update

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play

Photo via Tyler Wise

Welcome everyone to the Week 5 update of the 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen, and here are the TSR boards for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In the past, I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White, plus Julius Peppers, who is fourth on the all-time list. This season, I wanted to use the fourteenth player on the all-time sack list, eight-time First Team All-Pro and 1986 league MVP, Lawrence Taylor.

If you are interested in this grading scale applied to pressures, here are links from the 2022 season and a shortened leaderboard from 2023 (this will be expanded soon).

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Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading depending on a variety of different factors.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet in various ways, including after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Andrew Thomas) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2023) Packers edge-rusher Rashan Gary beating Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk 1v1 with a power pop move that knocks Ramczyk back before getting the sack right as the QB attempts to hitch up into the pocket.

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2023): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a swipe-rip move to win 1v1 vs. Chargers LG Zion Johnson.

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2023): 49ers edge-rusher Nick Bosa unblocked with the QB rolling into him off of the play-fake.

.5 points: Coverage/Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work, a missed sack from a teammate or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2023): Bucs edge-rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka playing contain on Bears QB Justin Fields before coming in unblocked to bring him down after a missed sack from DE Mike Greene.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through 5 games, a few notes:

• 255 sacks by 72 players have been graded this season.

• All stats are from TruMedia.

• New this year: I replaced ‘total snaps’ with ‘pass rush snaps’ and “total snap %” with “rush %”, giving us a more detailed view of pass-rush production. I still plan on recording total snaps so we can continue comparing apples-to-apples from prior seasons.

• Only players with two or more sacks will be graded

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• To view the all-time TSR rankings click here.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt’s individual player sheet:

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into the results and takeaways from the first five weeks of the 2023 season.

Edge Results through Week 5

Listed below are the top 34 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 2.0).

• Watt added another two HQ sacks in Week 5 against two different Ravens right tackles (Patrick Mekari & Daniel Faalele), using the ‘ghost’ technique for both (more on these soon). Watt is off to a red-hot start as a rusher this season and is batting 1000 with 9/9 of his sacks being HQ.

• Trey Hendrickson added four sacks (two HQ, one strip sack) over the last two weeks and is averaging a sack every 17.4 snaps. That’s the fifth best mark in the NFL and second best among rushers with at least 100 pass rush snaps. Hendrickson also had three sacks wiped away due to penalties. Over the last three seasons (2020-2022), Hendrickson ranks seventh in cumulative sack score. With very good power, hand usage and a vicious chop move to soften the edge, Hendrickson is a balanced, relentless rusher who can beat any level of competition in isolated matchups.

• Khalil Mack went from uncharted and unranked in the last update to third overall thanks to a monster six sack performance (three HQ) in Week 4 against the team that drafted him in the Raiders. Mack has already had a bye week, giving him one less game than most of the rushers on this list.

• Rashan Gary has been on a pitch count so far in his quick return from a torn ACL suffered in November of last year, and he has been ultra-efficient and impactful. Gary has just 76 pass rush snaps but ranks fifth overall in sack score (tied with Chris Jones at ‘5’) with a HQ sack every 19 snaps, the best mark in the league.

• The most surprising name in the top ten is Broncos second-year edge-rusher Nik Bonitto. His sack score of 4.5 is tied with Aidan Hutchinson for sixth best at their position. Just two of Bonitto’s six sacks have been HQ, but they are notable with one using a ghost technique (video below) and one a swipe into a dip-rip to defeat Jets RT Alijah Vera-Tucker. Bonitto is averaging a sack every 15 snaps, the second best mark in the NFL among rushers with less than 100 pass rush snaps. His flashes were likely a driving force behind the team moving on from veteran Randy Gregory last week.

• Giants third-year rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, Cowboys All-Pro Micah Parsons (both tied for ninth in sack score) and Titans versatile rusher Arden Key (tied for 17th in sack score) are the only three rushers outside of the top eight in sack score with three or more HQ sacks, signaling a marked level of potency as sack artists. Key is a TSR darling going back to his breakout 2021 season, and he is the lone rusher of this group batting 1000 with 3/3 of his sacks being HQ, using three different moves with an impressive blend of speed and power.

  • Key’s three HQ sacks

• Steelers edge-rusher Alex Highsmith is tied for 17th in sack score through five games thanks to two HQ strip sacks, both showing off his elite-level get-off. Teammate T.J. Watt recovered both fumbles. Highsmith’s 14.5 sack score last season was the eighth best individual season in TSR history, and he is off to a solid start this year.

  • Highsmith’s two HQ strip sacks

• There have been eight ‘ghost’ techniques used for sacks so far this season. They were from Alex Highsmith, Maxx Crosby, Arden Key, Leonard Floyd, A.J. Epenesa, Nik Bonitto and T.J. Watt (x2)

• When Von Miller came up with the current iteration of the ghost move and coined the term ‘ghost’ back in 2013, he said, “Now you see me, now you don’t” to describe the thinking behind the technique. To hear the full story and learn more about the origin and execution of the move click here.

• Six edge-rushers have ended drives on 100% of their sacks this season. This means their sacks came in one of three ways; third down to force a punt, fourth down to force a turnover on downs or from a strip sack that the defense recovered.

  • Matt Judon (4x)

  • Joey Bosa (3x)

  • Emmanuel Ogbah (2x)

  • Carl Granderson (3x)

  • Alex Highsmith (2x)

  • Uchenna Nwosu (2x)

Top ten in pass rush snaps/sack among edge rushers:

Next update I will add a minimum snap filter of 100 or > to help sort out the rotational players from full-time pass-rushers

Top ten in pass rush snaps/HQ sack among edge rushers:

This metric represents the most skilled and efficient sack artists off the edge in the 2023 season.

Next update I will add a minimum snap filter of 100 or > to help sort out the rotational from full-time pass-rushers

Interior DL Results through Week 5

Listed below are the top 26 in ‘sack score’ among interior rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 1.25).

• Chris Jones has created some separation from the pack after being tied with Denico Autry in the Week 3 update thanks to two HQ sacks over the last two weeks. For one sack, he aligned outside the tackle (his fourth), and he earned one from his traditional 3-technique alignment (his first). The second clip from the 3-technique is an incredible rep and is likely as fast as you’ll see any rusher notch a sack in the NFL.

• Vita Vea made a sizable leap up the rankings since the first update thanks to two RHQ sacks against the Saints. One came against center Erik McCoy, and one was versus right tackle Ryan Ramczyk. Vea’s power can overwhelm blockers not just in the run game but also the pass game, giving him rare pass-rush ability for someone weighing 350 pounds.