The 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 15 Update

Photo via Tyler Wise

Welcome everyone to the Week 15 update of the 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen, and here are the TSR boards for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In the past, I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White, plus Julius Peppers, who is fourth on the all-time list. This season, I wanted to use the fourteenth player on the all-time sack list, eight-time First Team All-Pro and 1986 league MVP, Lawrence Taylor.

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Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading depending on a variety of different factors.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet in various ways, including after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Andrew Thomas) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2023) Packers edge-rusher Rashan Gary beating Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk 1v1 with a power pop move that knocks Ramczyk back before getting the sack right as the QB attempts to hitch up into the pocket.

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2023): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a swipe-rip move to win 1v1 vs. Chargers LG Zion Johnson.

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2023): 49ers edge-rusher Nick Bosa unblocked with the QB rolling into him off of the play-fake.

.5 points: Coverage/Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work, a missed sack from a teammate or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2023): Bucs edge-rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka playing contain on Bears QB Justin Fields before coming in unblocked to bring him down after a missed sack from DE Mike Greene.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through 15 games, a few notes:

• 747 sacks by 110 players have been graded this season.

• All stats are from TruMedia.

• New this year: I replaced ‘total snaps’ with ‘pass rush snaps’ and “total snap %” with “rush %”, giving us a more detailed view of pass-rush production. I still plan on recording total snaps so we can continue comparing apples-to-apples from prior seasons.

• Only players with three or more sacks will be graded

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• To view the all-time TSR rankings click here.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack’s individual player sheet:

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into the results and takeaways from 15 weeks of the 2023 season.

Edge Results through Week 15

Listed below are the top 32 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 5.25).

Top ten in snaps/sack among edge rushers (minimum 250 pass-rush snaps):

1. Trey Hendrickson - 1 sack every 22.6 pass rush snaps

2. T.J. Watt - 1 sack every 25.9 pass rush snaps

3. Jonathan Greenard - 1 sack every 26.6 pass rush snaps

4. Montez Sweat - 1 sack every 26.7 pass rush snaps

5. Micah Parsons - 1 sack every 27.9 pass rush snaps

6. Myles Garrett - 1 sack every 28.2 pass rush snaps

7. Leonard Floyd - 1 sack every 28.5 pass rush snaps

8. Bryce Huff - 1 sack every 28.8 pass rush snaps

9. Khalil Mack - 1 sack every 28.9 pass rush snaps

10. Josh Allen - 1 sack every 29.3 pass rush snaps

Top ten in snaps/HQ sack among edge rushers (minimum 250 pass-rush snaps):

This metric represents the most skilled and efficient sack artists off the edge in the 2023 season.

1. Trey Hendrickson - 1 HQ sack every 38.5 pass rush snaps

2. Micah Parsons - 1 HQ sack every 39.0 pass rush snaps

3. T.J. Watt - 1 HQ sack every 44.1 pass rush snaps

4. Jonathan Greenard - 1 HQ every 46.6 pass rush snaps

5. Rashan Gary - 1 HQ sack every 49.2 pass rush snaps

6. Myles Garrett - 1 HQ sack every 49.4 pass rush snaps

7. Montez Sweat - 1 HQ sack every 57.3 pass rush snaps

8. Samson Ebukam - 1 HQ sack every 59.8 pass rush snaps

9. Josh Sweat - 1 HQ sack every 62.4 pass rush snaps

10. Bryce Huff - 1 HQ sack every 64.8 pass rush snaps