The 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 11 Update

Photo via Tyler Wise

Welcome everyone to the Week 11 update of the 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen, and here are the TSR boards for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In the past, I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White, plus Julius Peppers, who is fourth on the all-time list. This season, I wanted to use the fourteenth player on the all-time sack list, eight-time First Team All-Pro and 1986 league MVP, Lawrence Taylor.

If you are interested in this grading scale applied to pressures, here are links from the 2022 season and a top 22 leaderboard through the first seven weeks of the 2023 season season (update coming soon).

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Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading depending on a variety of different factors.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet in various ways, including after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Andrew Thomas) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2023) Packers edge-rusher Rashan Gary beating Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk 1v1 with a power pop move that knocks Ramczyk back before getting the sack right as the QB attempts to hitch up into the pocket.

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2023): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a swipe-rip move to win 1v1 vs. Chargers LG Zion Johnson.

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2023): 49ers edge-rusher Nick Bosa unblocked with the QB rolling into him off of the play-fake.

.5 points: Coverage/Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work, a missed sack from a teammate or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2023): Bucs edge-rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka playing contain on Bears QB Justin Fields before coming in unblocked to bring him down after a missed sack from DE Mike Greene.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through 11 games, a few notes:

• 519 sacks by 97 players have been graded this season.

• All stats are from TruMedia.

• New this year: I replaced ‘total snaps’ with ‘pass rush snaps’ and “total snap %” with “rush %”, giving us a more detailed view of pass-rush production. I still plan on recording total snaps so we can continue comparing apples-to-apples from prior seasons.

• Only players with three or more sacks will be graded

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• To view the all-time TSR rankings click here.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack’s individual player sheet:

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into the results and takeaways from 11 weeks of the 2023 season.

Edge Results through Week 11

Listed below are the top 32 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 4.5).

*All graphs made by Matt Spiegel

• Myles Garrett is the all-time leader in sack score since I started this project during the 2020 season, and he once again leads the NFL in sack score at ‘13’ through 11 weeks. Garrett has been the league’s top sack artist and most physically dominant edge-rusher for years. His previous star seasons are culminating in long overdue recognition this year as his surrounding cast has improved. Garrett is the betting favorite to win his first Defensive Player of the Year award for essentially replicating what he has been doing for years.

• Khalil Mack’s sack production has come in bunches this season with three multi-sack games, including a monster six-sack outing (three HQ) against the Raiders in Week 4. As Mack has aged, his explosiveness has quieted some, but he still has very good power in his bull-rush, which has accounted for five of his 11 sacks and four of his six total HQ sacks. Mack’s 95.5 career sacks are currently tied for 49th all-time with Ryan Kerrigan and Robert Porcher (more on this later).

• Checking in at seventh with a sack score of 8.5 is Giants second-year edge-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux with five HQ sacks. Thibodeaux’s development as a rusher has been noticeable. He initially came into the league as more of a high-energy, outside threat using pure get-off and burst but has developed the ability to win inside across the face of blockers. Thibodeaux pairing the ability to win inside with his motor and upfield speed has resulted in him becoming a quality number one edge-rusher.

• Texans edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard (in a contract year) is another pleasant surprise in the top half of the sack score leaderboard.  His 8.5 score is tied with Eagles edge-rusher Josh Sweat for 11th overall. Greenard has surprised the common observer this year with his production but has been a player the TSR has noted several times as an underrated rusher over the years.

  • Greenard has feasted on the likes of Panthers LT Ikem Ekwonu & Saints LT Trevor Penning using an excellent get-off, elite length (34 7/8) and surprising power for four of his five HQ sacks. He is also posing problems against better competition on a down-to-down basis.

• Recently acquired 49ers edge-rusher Chase Young is having the best year of his career and is finally combining his elite physical tools with the production to match. Young has quickly become a high-octane edge-rusher on par with the best in the NFL thanks to his rare ability to not only challenge but beat the best blockers in the NFL. Young has five HQ sacks against Garett Bolles, Jordan Mailata, Cam Robinson, Justin Pugh and Tristan Wirfs (rare HQ), winning inside, outside and down the middle.

• After being a serviceable rotational rusher as a rookie, Seahawks second-year edge-rusher Boye Mafe has made a nice sophomore leap this season and his ‘6’ sack score, which is tied for 14th with Haason Reddick and Aidan Hutchinson. Mafe’s four HQ sacks have come against Giants OL Joseph Ezeudu, Browns RT Dawand Jones, Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley and Cardinals RT Paris Johnson, three of which are at least solid or above average players. Mafe is winning with vicious double-swipe and cross-chop moves to capture the corner, which is going a long way towards unlocking his elite athletic ability. Shoutout to first-year ‘pass-rush specialist’ BT Jordan, who has played a key role in Mafe’s ascension.

• The Broncos traded (Randy Gregory) and cut (Frank Clark), their top two veteran edge-rushers, to provide their younger, promising edge-rushers more opportunities, including former seventh round pick Jonathon Cooper. Cooper’s 5.5 sack score is tied for 17th with Rashan Gary and Bradley Chubb. Cooper’s ability to sync his feet and hands to get to the edge of blockers has been impressive going back to his college days at Ohio State when he gave Rashawn Slater trouble when they faced off.

  • Cooper’s four HQ sacks

• Youngest edge-rusher in the top 32 sack score rankings

  • Chiefs edge-rusher George Karlaftis - Tied for 20th with a sack score of 5 (22.6 years old)

• Oldest edge-rusher in the top 32 sack score rankings

  • Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack - 3rd with a sack score of 10.75 (32.8 years old)

• Chargers edge-rusher Joey Bosa is the only edge-rusher inside the top 32 in sack score that has ended drives on 100% of his sacks so far this season. This means his sacks came in one of three ways: third down to force a punt, fourth down to force a turnover on downs or a strip sack that the defense recovered. Bosa has battled a foot injury most of the season and is slated to be put on short-term injured reserve after injuring it in Week 11.

• Edge-rushers with at least 200 pass-rush snaps and zero HQ sacks: Rams Byron Young and Bills Gregory Rousseau.

• You have to wait until Maxx Crosby (fourth round) at eighth overall in sack score to find a rusher not selected in the first three rounds. The next rushers that fit that category are Josh Sweat (fourth round) tied for 11th, Jonathon Cooper (seventh round) tied at 17th and just four others for a total of seven in the top 32 rushers. Of the 25 rushers drafted in the first three rounds, 18 were first-rounders, including ten of the top 16. If you want high-end production in the pass-rushing department, chances are you need to pay a premium in the draft or hope that you can get a first-round caliber, freakish athlete with question marks later (Ex: Crosby & Sweat).

Top ten in snaps/sack among edge rushers (minimum 200 pass-rush snaps):

Top ten in snaps/HQ sack among edge rushers (minimum 200 pass-rush snaps):

This metric represents the most skilled and efficient sack artists off the edge in the 2023 season.

Interior DL Results through Week 11

Listed below are the top 27 in ‘sack score’ among interior rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 2).