The 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 3 Update

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play

Photo via Tyler Wise

Welcome everyone to the first update of the 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen, and here are the TSR boards for the 2021 and 2022 seasons. In the past, I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White, plus Julius Peppers, who is fourth on the all-time list. This season, I wanted to use the fourteenth player on the all-time sack list, eight-time First Team All-Pro and 1986 league MVP, Lawrence Taylor.

Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading depending on a variety of different factors.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet in various ways, including after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Andrew Thomas) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2023) Packers edge-rusher Rashan Gary beating Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk 1v1 with a power pop move that knocks Ramczyk back before getting the sack right as the QB attempts to hitch up into the pocket.

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2023): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a swipe-rip move to win 1v1 vs. Chargers LG Zion Johnson.

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2023): 49ers edge-rusher Nick Bosa unblocked with the QB rolling into him off of the play-fake.

.5 points: Coverage/Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work, a missed sack from a teammate or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2023): Bucs edge-rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka playing contain on Bears QB Justin Fields before coming in unblocked to bring him down after a missed sack from DE Mike Greene.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through 3 games, a few notes:

• 147 sacks by 64 players have been graded this season.

• All stats are from TruMedia.

• New this year: I replaced ‘total snaps’ with ‘pass rush snaps’ and “total snap %” with “rush %”, giving us a more detailed view of pass-rush production. I still plan on recording total snaps so we can continue comparing apples-to-apples from prior seasons.

• Only players with two or more sacks will be graded

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt’s individual player sheet:

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into the results and takeaways from the first three weeks of the 2023 season.

Edge Results through Week 3

Listed below are the top 31 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 1.5).

• After finishing with the second best overall sack score ever in 2021 (16.5) and ranking fourth all-time in cumulative sack score (32.5), Watt missed seven games last season due to an assortment of injuries that limited him to 5.5 total sacks with a sack score of 4.5. Watt has already exceeded his sack numbers through ten starts last season in just three games this year, and all have been HQ sacks, including two strip sacks. The battle for sack score leader this season should be the most competitive we have ever seen at the edge-rusher position now that Watt is back to his old self.

• Just ten months removed from a torn ACL, Packers edge-rusher Rashan Gary is as explosive and powerful as ever. Gary’s sack score of ‘4’ ranks third among his peers, and he has two astounding rare HQ sacks through three games. Both came against Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk. The fifth-year pro should eclipse double-digit sacks for the first time in his career this season, especially considering an underwhelming set of right tackles remaining on the Packers’ schedule.

• Cardinals Dennis Gardeck is an undersized spark-plug of an edge-rusher and has been a TSR favorite since his eye-popping six high-quality sacks on 93 snaps during the 2020 season. He is off to another hot start this year. Gardeck is tied for fifth in sack score with two HQ sacks. Both of those HQ sacks ended the opponent’s drive with one being a strip sack that resulted in a touchdown.

• Gardeck may have a smaller stature and obscure background, but he uses it to his advantage by shrinking surface area for blockers to strike, maximizing his quickness, good hands and sneaky pop on contact that can catch blockers off guard.

• Two of the bigger surprises so far this season have been Panthers edge-rusher Yetur Gross-Matos and Cardinal Victor Dimukeje. Each have two HQ sacks on just 38 pass rush snaps. Gross-Matos has flashed on tape in the past, but Dimukeje is a former sixth-round pick with zero career sacks prior to this season. It will be interesting to monitor their progress this season, particularly Dimukeje and a surprisingly frisky Cardinals defense.

• 49ers edge-rusher Nick Bosa is tied for seventh in total pressures with Trey Hendrickson through three games but is converting them into sacks at a far lower rate than his peers. Bosa has just one sack, and it was low-quality resulting from being unblocked. Given his dominance on tape this season, expect a jump in sack production soon.

• There have been four ‘ghost’ techniques used for sacks so far this season. They were from Alex Highsmith, Maxx Crosby, Arden Key and Leonard Floyd:

• When Von Miller came up with the current iteration of the ghost move and coined the term ‘ghost’ back in 2013, he said, “Now you see me, now you don’t” to describe the thinking behind the technique. To hear the full story and learn more about the origin and execution of the move click here.

• Eight edge-rushers have ended drives on 100% of their sacks this season. This means their sacks came in one of three ways; third down to force a punt, fourth down to force turnover on downs or from a strip sack that the defense recovered:

  • Matt Judon (4x)

  • Dennis Gardeck (3x)

  • Joey Bosa (3x)

  • Samson Ebukam (2x)

  • Jonathon Cooper (2x)

  • Carl Granderson (2x)

  • Chase Young (2x)

  • Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (2x)

Top ten in pass rush snaps/sack among edge rushers:

Top ten in pass rush snaps/HQ sack among edge rushers:

This metric represents the most skilled and efficient sack artists off the edge in the 2023 season.

Interior DL Results through Week 3

Listed below are all interior rusher graded through three games (top 28).