The 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 9 Update

Photo via Tyler Wise

Welcome everyone to the Week 9 update of the 2022 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric where I study and chart every sack of the season from all defensive linemen.

If you are new to the TSR, here are the final leaderboards from the 2020 season for edge-rushers and interior D-linemen and the 2021 season for both positions. In the past I’ve paid homage with the cover photo to the top two sack artists of all-time, Bruce Smith and Reggie White. This season I wanted to use the player fourth on the all-time sack list and one of my favorite pass-rushers of all-time, Julius Peppers.

Introduction

From a team perspective, all sacks are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Depending on a variety of different factors, player evaluation based on raw sack statistics can often be misleading.

Players can add a ‘sack’ on the stat-sheet after the quarterback handles the ball for too long (either due to great coverage or the QB failing to recognize the opening in the defense), as a result of a protection breakdown, by tackling the QB at the line of scrimmage, while still being blocked, or by soundly beating the blocker in front of them due to superior athletic ability and/or technique.

By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a sack into four different categories — using film study, charting, and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances.

Through this process, we will be able to more accurately evaluate sack and pass-rush production as a whole for the defensive line position.

The TSR will provide us with each rusher’s “sack score,” based on a point system that specifies four different types of sacks and forced fumbles, as outlined below:

1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Sack - A 1-on-1 win over a very good (Ex: Laremy Tunsil) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example: (2021) Saints DE Cameron Jordan beating Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs 1v1 with a stab-chop move strung together with a bull-rush for a strip sack. Jordan received an additional .5 points for forcing the fumble for a total of 1.75 (1.25 RHQ + .5 forced fumble).

1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) win over an above average (or below) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.

Example (2022): Titans DT Jeffery Simmons using a stab-club move to win 1v1 vs. Giants LG Joshua Ezeudu.

.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) – A sack coming as a result of being unblocked or a scheme such as a twist or stunt, in which no special skill or move was required in order to record the sack.

Example (2022): Texans edge-rusher Jerry Hughes unblocked in pursuit being the first defender to touch an already down QB.

.5 points: Coverage / Cleanup Sack – An effort sack coming as the result of excellent secondary work or a quarterback hanging onto the ball for too long.

Example (2022): Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack getting a free run at the QB and cleaning up a missed sack by linebacker Drue Tranquill.

Both a low-quality and coverage/cleanup sack are valued the same and should be viewed similarly, but the distinction between the two is another layer of context in the evaluation process.

Before we get into the results through the first nine games, a few notes:

• 386 sacks by 88 players have been graded so far.

• All stats are from Pro Football Reference and TruMedia.

• Only players with two or more sacks will be graded.

• Half sacks were counted as full sacks if the rusher beat the blocker and/or was going to likely take down the quarterback without the help of a teammate.

• Recorded sacks when the quarterback got back to the line of scrimmage and didn’t lose any yardage were not counted, because of their relatively limited impact.. All sacks I counted required at least a loss of one yard or more.

• If the QB dropped ten yards or more behind the line of scrimmage and an edge-rusher got the sack, the rush was more heavily scrutinized to determine if it was high or low-quality. The threshold that QBs are given on nearly every drop-back is between 9-9.5 yards. Anything past 9.5 yards, and the angle becomes increasingly difficult and unrealistic for tackles to match vs. rushers. If the QB drops beyond that depth, it’s then his responsibility to step up into the pocket or evade the rush on his own. This is admittedly a gray area, which sometimes makes it difficult to assign a grade. In those rare situations, I reached out to at least one outside expert for an extra set of eyes to get their opinion for clarity.

• If you are a paid subscriber and want to see an individual player’s charting information throughout this season, please send me an email with your requests and I will shoot those over.

• This will be a regularly updated article with new graphs, videos and takeaways throughout the regular season.

• Below is an example of the data I chart for each player using Browns edge-rusher Myles Garrett’s individual player sheet:

Now for the fun stuff. Let’s get into some of the results and takeaways through the first 9 weeks of the 2022 season.

Edge Results through Week 9

*All graphics made by John Pulice.

Listed below is the top 28 in ‘sack score’ among edge rushers in the NFL (minimum score of 3.5).

• The top two haven’t changed since the Week 7 update, although Myles Garrett raised his score from 6.75 to 8.25, just .25 behind the NFL leader Micah Parsons. The Browns and Cowboys were on byes last week, so the two most skilled edge-rushers will be returning fresh in Week 10.

  • Myles Garrett’s get-off and burst at the snap is a major threat to the tackles tasked with blocking him. This necessitates extra help that often comes from outside of the tackle to essentially close off the corner. Garrett’s last two HQ sacks have been counters to how teams are attempting to slow him down: using inside moves. Below you will see Garrett’s power (inside stab vs. Ravens RT Morgan Moses) and incredible agility/coordination (inside spin against a Bengals double-team).

• Patriots edge-rusher Matt Judon is leading the NFL in sacks with 11 and ranks third in sack score at 7.5. Judon posted three LQ sacks since the last update, all of them coming last week against the Colts and their struggling offensive line. While Judon is having a very good year overall, he hasn’t had a HQ sack since Week 7 and has just three HQ sacks this season. Judon had similar production last year when he finished with 13 overall sacks and a sack score of ‘8’ but just four HQ sacks.
  

  Judon has largely benefitted from favorable circumstances when it comes to the sacks he has accumulated the last two seasons, which is more of a testament to the scheme putting him in positions to most efficiently get to the quarterback than an indictment on his skill-set. Judon is capable of getting home to the quarterback with a high degree of skill against most competition, but he simply doesn’t do it very often.

  • Judon’s three-sack performance against the Colts is below. You can see he is barely touched on any of them either due to poor blocking or missed assignments by the opposition.

• Vikings Za’Darius Smith made the second biggest leap of any rusher in the NFL since the Week 7 update, going from outside the top 12 among edge-rushers with a sack score of ‘4’ to fourth overall with a sack score of ‘7’ thanks to three HQ sacks in Week 8 against the Cardinals, each coming aligned as a ‘spinner’ over the guard or center (below).

  • Smith has nine total sacks this season and five of them have come aligned inside the tackles. He missed most of the 2021 season, but he finished fifth overall in sack score (10.5) among edge-rushers in 2020 with 13 overall sacks, and eight of them came aligned inside the tackles. Smith is the best ‘spinner’ in the NFL due to his strong, violent hands and rare blend of power and lateral quickness.

• Similar to Smith, Ravens edge-rusher Justin Houston made a big jump from the last update. He went from a sack score of ‘4’ (outside the top 20) to a sack score of ‘6.75’ (tied for fifth with Alex Highsmith & Haason Reddick). Houston has several unblocked sacks this season with just two of his nine sacks being HQ, but he is capitalizing on opportunities as the only rusher on the leaderboard with less than 200 snaps played (182). Houston is averaging a sack every 20 snaps and is now 25th all-time in career sacks with 110.5.