True Sack Rate (TSR): A film project to quantify sack production - Week 14 update
For a complete background on the TSR metric including how sacks are graded and the definition of terms click here.
Results & findings through 14 weeks of the season
Listed below is every edge defender (4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker) in the NFL with a âsack scoreâ of at least â5â (effectively a âTop 22â in sack score through 14 weeks). Youâll also see their snap count, snap percentage, average number of snaps per sack (Sack / Snap), and average number of snaps per HQ sack (HQ Sack / Snap).â
Haason Reddick now sits as the second most productive edge-rusher in the NFL in terms of sack production trailing only Myles Garrett after Reddick exploded for five HQ sacks and three forced fumbles in Week 14. Reddick had already been having the best season of his young career prior to this remarkable performance but now has launched himself into another stratosphere, jumping to No. 2 in the rankings after not being in the top 27 last week.
Below are all five of his Week 14 sacks in the order they occurred (four of them happened in the 4th quarter alone). The second sack in the reel was the most questionable in terms of labeling it HQ or LQ since he was barely touched as a looper on the T-E stunt, but due to the impressive lateral quickness he displayed to beat Giants RG Kevin Zeitler across his face, it was settled as HQ.
It should be noted that while each sack was high-quality due to an impressive display of skill to beat different pass-blockers in isolated matchups, the bulk of them came against arguably the NFLâs worst tackle tandem in Giants rookie LT Andrew Thomas and RT Cameron Fleming. Nonetheless, Reddick exploited their deficiencies and should be recognized for maximizing his opportunities.
Bucs DE Jason Pierre-Paulâs season needs to be talked about more. At 31-years old and in his 11th year, âJPPâ is 4th in sack score (8.5), tied for 1st in forced fumbles (4), and has the 3rd highest percentage of snaps played (89%) of anyone in the top 50 in sack score rankings, behind only Leonard Floyd (91%) and J.J. Watt (91%). JPP is playing a ton of snaps in the second decade of his career, not wearing down, and producing at a very high level in terms of sack production.
Josh Sweat has been having a very impressive third season with a career high six sacks, ranking 13th in sack score despite playing just 46% of snaps, the only player in the top 20 in sack score below the 50% marker. His efficiency in sacking the quarterback is rooted in a collection of elite traits (athletic ability, explosiveness and length) with a rapidly developing skill-set and the ability to string together moves.
Sweat notched a RHQ sack last week against Saints All-Pro LT Terron Armstead by using his length (long-arm), explosive power, and forklift technique to unlock Armsteadâs contact point, helping him work underneath of his frame and drive him back in a way rarely ever seen against the Saints left tackle.
Harold Landry is playing more of his teamsâ snaps (94%) than any of the 99 edge-rushers Iâve charted so far this season and has the lowest sack score (2.5) of anyone playing more than 75% of their teamsâ snaps. Landry has very good bend and good quickness but has yet to develop a primary or signature move that he can rely on to win isolated matchups. Much of his production as a pass-rusher occurs on stunts and the occasional win around the corner, but he is one player that Iâve noticed on tape (and the TSR has reinforced) that could use more refinement to his pass-rush plan.
Of the players with at least 60% of snaps played, there are 5 that have yet to record a single HQ sack:
Tanoh Kpassagnon (72%), Jerry Hughes (65%), Sam Hubbard (60%), Montez Sweat (65%), and Kyler Fackrell (63%).
There are only five players in the top 30 sack score rankings that were drafted on day three of the draft or later:
ZaâDarius Smith - 4th round - 4th in sack score
Romeo Okwara - Undrafted - 11th in sack score
Shaquil Barrett - Undrafted - 12th in sack score
Josh Sweat - 4th round - 13th in sack score
Kerry Hyder - Undrafted - 19th in sack score
Dennis Gardeck - Undrafted - 24th in sack score
Malik Reed - Undrafted - 27th in sack score
There are four edge-rushers in the top 22 in sack score that are at least 30-years old:
Brandon Graham - 32-years old - 19th in sack score (5)
Jason Pierre-Paul - 31-years old - 4th in sack score (8.5)
Justin Houston - 31-years old - 14th in sack score (6)
J.J. Watt - 31-years old - 20 in sack score (5)
Cardinals linebacker Dennis Gardeck is a former undrafted Division II player in his 3rd year that has only played 69 snaps the entire season, yet has four HQ sacks (five total), giving him an absurd HQ sack every 17.3 snaps. Gardeck has earned a more expanded role this season (if you want to call 69 snaps âexpandedâ) after being a special teams standout and has made the most of his opportunity. For being listed at 6â0â 232 pounds, Gardeck packs heat at the point of contact and has knocked back tackles and guards for several sacks this season.
Top edge-rushers sorted by total HQ sacks (minimum of three):
Rare high-quality (RHQ) sacks arenât tallied into the âHigh-qualityâ column, so adding those in would put Olivier Vernon tied for 2nd place with Joey Bosa at seven total RHQ/HQ sacks.
Dennis Gardeck at four HQ sacks on 9% of snaps jumps off the graph and is one of the more remarkable stats the TRS has identified so far this season.
Every RHQ sack charted through 14 weeks of the season:
There have been 11 RHQ sacks the entire season so far, with some surprising names on the list including Clelin Ferrell (vs. Mekhi Becton in Week 13), Uchenna Nwosu (vs. Terron Armstead in Week 5), and Derek Barnett (vs. Trent Williams in Week 4).
Top 5 leaders in most sacks per snap (minimum of 350 snaps):
1. Trey Hendrickson - 1 sack every 48.9 snaps (489 snaps)
2. Myles Garrett - 1 sack every 54.4 snaps (598 snaps)
3. Justin Houston - 1 sack every 60.4 snaps (483 snaps)
4. T.J. Watt - 1 sack every 61.5 snaps (738 snaps)
5. ZaâDarius Smith - 1 sack every 63.5 snaps (698 snaps)
Trey Hendrickson leading the NFL in sacks per snap is an impressive feat for him but is misleading at the same time because just two of his 10 sacks this year are HQ with the rest being LQ or a result of the QB holding onto the ball for too long. Hendrickson does have five drive-killing sacks, so the timing of them provides additional impact and should be noted.
Top 5 leaders in most HQ sacks per snap (minimum of 350 snaps):
1. Myles Garrett - 1 HQ sack every 54.4 snaps (598 snaps)
2. Joey Bosa - 1 HQ sack every 76.0 snaps (532 snaps)
3. Olivier Vernon - 1 HQ sack every 89.9 snaps (629 snaps)
4. Josh Sweat - 1 HQ sack every 104.3 snaps (417 snaps)
5. Haason Reddick - 1 HQ sack every 111.8 snaps (671 snaps)
Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa are dominating the HQ sacks per snap metric and are a good example of the value TSR brings; these are the two best edge-rushers in football and this speaks to their impact in a notable way. Theyâre also both top 3 draft picks (Garrett 1st overall, Bosa 3rd overall), so it isnât too surprising that they stand above their peers in the TSR.
Great work as usual. I'm wondering how Rashan Gary's sacks chart? He's up to 5 on the year.