True Sack Rate (TSR): A film project to quantify sack production - Week 12 update
For a complete background on the TSR metric including how sacks are graded, click here.
Results & findings through 12 weeks of the season
Listed below is every edge defender (4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker) in the NFL with a ‘sack score’ of at least ‘4.5’ (effectively a ‘Top 25’ in sack score through 12 weeks). You’ll also see their snap count, snap percentage, average number of snaps per sack (Sack / Snap), and average number of snaps per HQ sack (HQ Sack / Snap).
Browns defensive end (DE) Myles Garrett is still comfortably ahead of his peers in sack score despite missing the last two games and has four more HQ sacks than second place rushers Joey Bosa and Za’Darius Smith. Garrett is slated to play in Week 13.
Shaquil Barrett is 10th in sack score and 3rd in pressures among edge-rushers with 32, with the former giving a better idea of where he ranks among his peers. While Barrett isn’t as consistent of a threat off of the edge as names like Watt, Bosa, Mack, or Garrett, he has elite stuff that shows up from time to time. Here’s a perfect example from last week against Chiefs LT Eric Fisher when Barrett strung together a gorgeous cross-chop and double-swipe for a strip sack:
T.J. Watt had two sacks in Week 12 that bumped him into 4th overall in sack score which is a more accurate representation of his place in the edge-rusher hierarchy as opposed to the 7th overall sack score he had the prior week. Watt leads the NFL in pressures with 42 and can win consistently going outside, inside, or down the middle of his opponent, a mark of an elite player.
Jason Pierre-Paul is 5th in sack score but ranks 33rd in pressures among edge-rushers with 17. There are certainly not 32 better players in the NFL at his position, but it does help balance his sack score and highlight that he’s probably closer to the 15-20 range among his peers than top five. Three of his eight sacks came with a forced fumble and an additional 1.5 points into his sack score, which is partly why he’s ranked so highly right now too.
Carl Lawson is 20th in sack score but ranks 6th in edge pressures with 29. Lawson isn’t a top 10 player at his position but he’s also probably higher than 20th. Lawson’s signature long-arm bull-rush is one of the league’s most underrated moves and he’s causing a lot of disruption with it, but isn’t racking up many sacks so the TSR isn’t doing him enough justice (so far) this season.
Yannick Ngakoue is 11th in sack score but sits at 36th among edge-rushers in pressures with 17. This is a big difference that helps put context around his impact as a pass-rusher. Ngakoue’s knack for stripping the QB has resulted in four strip/sacks this season, which adds 2.0 points onto his score and is a big reason why he’s so highly ranked.
The only edge-rusher in the top 25 sack score rankings that has played under 50% of snaps this season is Washington DE Ryan Kerrigan (4.5 score on 37% of snaps). Kerrigan has three HQ sacks this season that have all ended drives and been a result of stringing together moves. Even with the decrease in playing time this season, the 10-year veteran is making a notable impact.
All six of Broncos OLB Bradley Chubb’s sacks have ended drives, making him the only player in the top 30 sack score rankings with 100% of his sacks being drive-killers.
Notable edge-rushers without a single sack yet this season are Melvin Ingram, Jadeveon Clowney, Celin Ferrell and Arden Key.
Here are the top edge-rushers sorted by total HQ sacks (minimum of three):
Derek Barnett should also be included in here but only has two HQ sacks with another being a rare HQ sack (against Trent Williams in Week 4), giving him three total HQ sacks on the season.
The Browns have three edge-rushers on this list for a total of 18 rare HQ and HQ sacks (Myles Garrett - 10, Olivier Vernon - 5, Adrian Clayborn - 3). To give some context as how impressive that number is consider the second highest amount of HQ sacks from edge-rushers on a team level is the Chargers with nine (Bosa - 7, Nwosu - 2).
The most surprising name on the list is Leonard Floyd and his four HQ sacks this season, two from using a cross-chop technique and three total sacks ending drives. Floyd is benefitting from Aaron Donald’s presence taking up attention and one of the league’s most forward-thinking defensive schemes, but he should also get credit for the high-quality nature of his sack production.
There are six total edge-rushers with at least one RHQ sack: Bosa (2), Garrett (1), Khalil Mack (1), Vernon (1), Uchenna Nwosu (1), and Barnett (1).
The top 5 leaders in most sacks per snap (minimum of 300 snaps):
1. Trey Hendrickson - 1 sack every 45.6 snaps (410 snaps)
2. Myles Garrett - 1 sack every 49.2 snaps (492 snaps)
3. Joey Bosa - 1 sack every 53.5 snaps (428 snaps)
4. T.J. Watt - 1 sack every 55.3 snaps (608 snaps)
5. Kerry Hyder - 1 sack every 57.3 snaps (458 snaps)Trey Hendrickson leading the NFL in sacks per snap is an impressive feat for him but is misleading at the same time because just two of his nine sacks this year are HQ with the rest being LQ or a result of the QB holding onto the ball for too long. Hendrickson does have five drive-killing sacks, so the timing of them provides additional impact and should be noted.
Kerry Hyder’s production and ranking of 5th in sacks per snap is one of the bigger surprises among edge-rushers this year. Hyder became a full-time starter for the first time in his career this season after Nick Bosa went down with injury and is taking full advantage, notching a sack every 57 snaps he’s on the field with a sack score of 5, ranking 17th overall. Hyder’s blend of power and a well-stocked repertoire of pass-rush moves has been maximized under 49ers DL coach Kris Kocurek’s shrewd coaching this season.
Top 5 leaders in most HQ sacks per snap (minimum of 300 snaps):
1. Myles Garrett - 1 HQ sack every 49.2 snaps (492 snaps)
2. Joey Bosa - 1 HQ sack every 61.1 snaps (428 snaps)
3. Olivier Vernon - 1 HQ sack every 99.8 snaps (499 snaps)
4. Carlos Dunlap - 1 HQ sack every 115.8 snaps (463 snaps)
5. Za’Darius Smith - 1 HQ sack every 117.4 snaps (587 snaps)Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa are dominating the HQ sacks per snap metric and are a good example of the value TSR brings; these are the two best edge-rushers in football and this speaks to their impact in a notable way.
Carlos Dunlap is the real surprise on this list and has been quietly having an underrated season both before the mid-season trade to the Seahawks and since.
Seven of Za’Darius Smith’s nine sacks this season have come from the 3-technique alignment and all from using power moves. Smith has also ended five drives and forced two fumbles on his nine sacks, picking up where he left off after his breakout season in 2019.