True Pressure Rate (TPR): Week 17 Update
Studying, charting and grading every recorded pressure from rushers with 33 or more pressures to bring added context to the raw numbers
Welcome everyone to the Week 17 update of the True Pressure Rate (TPR), a complementary evaluation tool to pair with the True Sack Rate (TSR) to bring much-needed context to the ‘sack’ and ‘pressure’ statistics while simultaneously providing a more refined gauge on determining who actually are the most skilled, impactful and valuable pass-rushers in football. The final update and standings will be completed after Week 18.
From a team perspective, all pressures are positive for a defense, but they can mean very different things for an individual pass-rusher making the play. Player evaluation based on raw pressures often paints an incomplete picture.
A pressure is compiled by most companies (including PFF) as the sum of QB hits/knockdowns, hurries and sacks. Sacks are self-explanatory (tackling the QB at or behind the line of scrimmage), but what are QB hits/knockdowns and hurries?
Per PFF, a QB hurry is defined as, “Forcing a quick throw, flushing the quarterback from the pocket, forcing the quarterback to step up in the pocket, forcing the quarterback to throw a pass away, preventing a quarterback from stepping up into the pocket by collapsing the pocket or preventing the quarterback from stepping into the throw. In the event of the quarterback being forced to step up, the pass rusher absolutely must have beaten the blocker and be past the blocker’s shoulder to be credited with a pressure. If the blocker clearly pushes the defender deep and past the depth of the quarterback’s drop back, then this is not a QB pressure. Multiple defensive players can be credited with a hurry on a given pass play.”
A QB hit is defined as, “Recorded after or as the quarterback releases the pass and a defender hits the quarterback such that the quarterback goes to ground. The quarterback must go down as an action of the defender. Multiple defensive players can be credited with a hit on a given pass play.”
While these definitions sound extremely detailed and theoretically add more nuance and context than sacks do, there is still a grey area.
Take this example from 49ers edge-rusher Nick Bosa from Week 17 of the 2022 season against the Raiders. Bosa was credited with ten QB pressures on the day, but studying each one revealed that number is void of much-needed context.
Here are five of Bosa’s 10 pressures in question. These are simply recorded as ‘pressures’ by PFF, but for the TPR they were recorded as ‘low-quality’ or ‘unblocked’ pressures.
Rep 1 - Low quality pressure: Raiders LT Kolton Miller anchors on Bosa, yet Bosa is still credited with a pressure due to the QB escaping in his direction due to opposite side pressure that collapsed the pocket, forcing the QB to run in his direction.
Rep 2 - Low quality pressure: Bosa’s attempted inside swipe is thwarted by Miller. The QB has to run towards Bosa due to an unblocked blitzer off of the opposite side, creating an opportunity for Bosa to notch a QB hit. Bosa should get some kudos for staying active and using an outside spin to work off of being shut down going inside, but opposite side pressure is the primary reason he was in position to notch a QB hit.
Rep 3 - Unblocked pressure. This one is self-explanatory. Nothing of note was done here from Bosa other than fill space towards the QB.
Rep 4 - Low quality pressure: At first glance Bosa does work past the pulling left guard towards the QB, but the opposite side 3-technique works free through the center of the pocket to force the QB off of his spot, out of the back of the pocket and into Bosa’s path. This is a good example of ‘fortunate circumstances.’
Rep 5 - Unblocked pressure: Bosa gets the QB hit as the unblocked looper on a three-man twist/game. This is a schematic win for the 49ers pass-rush with Bosa merely executing his assignment without demonstrating any special skill or trait.
Now contrast those five LQ pressures with Bosa’s other five pressures, all of which I charted as HQ:
By differentiating and qualifying these different pathways to notching a pressure into three different categories — using film study, charting, and a simple grading scale — we gain valuable insight into which players are earning their production vs. which players are the beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances (like sacks, you’d be surprised just how many ‘pressures’ are the result of fortunate circumstances).
Through this process and combining the results with the TSR, we will be able to more accurately evaluate pressure, sack and overall pass-rush production for the defensive line.
The TPR will provide us with each rusher’s “pressure rate,” based on a point system that specifies three different types of pressures, as outlined below:
1.25 points: Rare High Quality (RHQ) Pressure - A 1-on-1 QB hit or hurry over a very good (Ex: Andrew Thomas) or elite (Ex: Trent Williams) blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.
Example: (2024) Browns DE Myles Garrett beating Giants LT Andrew Thomas using an inside spin move for the pressure and QB hit.
1.0 point: High Quality (HQ) Pressure – A 1-on-1 (or 1-on-2) QB hit or hurry against an above (or below) average blocker due to the rusher’s skill, move(s) and/or athletic ability.
Example (2024): Eagles DT Jalen Carter using his signature inside club move to beat Saints RG Cesar Ruiz for the pressure.
.5 points: Low Quality (LQ) or Unblocked Pressure – A pressure coming as a result of the QB running into the rusher’s direction due to scheme (bootleg, roll-out), pressure from another rusher or being unblocked due to scheme (stunt, twist) or a missed assignment.
Example (2024): Texans edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. being unblocked with a clear path to the QB
Before we get into the results here are a few notes:
All stats are via TruMedia & PFF
3,062 pressures from 78 players were charted and graded
Sacks are typically counted in the QB hit category and also into the pressure total for players via TruMedia, but I omitted sacks from these numbers since I already charted/graded those separately for the TSR project. To clarify, the TPR only consists of QB hits/knockdowns (minus sacks) and QB hurries.
While the Pressure Rate accounts for quality, it's heavily affected by volume, so I am introducing another metric called the Pressure Quality Ratio (PQR) that shows the ratio of Rare High Quality + High Quality pressures to Low Quality pressures. While volume is certainly valuable, this helps show why two players with similar total pressures are scored differently, or can help you identify players that may have a lower total volume but are essentially "working harder" for that lower volume. "Working harder" could be due to scheme, attention from offensive personnel, quality of opposing player, etc. In other words, the combination of the pressure score and the pressure quality ratio can level the playing field between players in disparate circumstances. I'd pay attention particularly to outliers in Pressure Quality Ratio.
Top 47 in True Pressure Rate:
*These are total pressures minus sacks (since I will chart those separately for the True Sack Rate)
Chris Jones and Myles Garrett ranking first and second overall in True Pressure Rate should come as no surprise as both rushers have finished inside the top seven or better since the TPR’s inception in 2022. Only Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons have finished inside the top seven in each season over that same span. We still have one more week of the season to go but that won’t change the fact that these four names are where any list identifying the most impactful rushers over the last three seasons should start.
Since 2022 there have been two rookies that have finished inside the top 20 in True Pressure Rate: Lions edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson in 2023 finished second overall and Rams edge-rusher Jared Verse is currently at third with one week to go.
Hutchinson and Verse are a perfect representation of the different edge-rushing archetypes that can win at the highest level with Hutchinson winning primarily with speed moves (speed chop, double-swipe, spin) and Verse relying mostly on his bull-rush to generate sacks and pressures. That isn’t to say that Hutchinson doesn’t win with power or Verse with speed (they can) but what is clear is that these are the two best rookie edge-rushers over the last three seasons by a wide margin. Verse specifically has a potent stab-chop series of moves that he utilized in spurts this year to generate high-quality production.
The question moving forward is if Verse can sustain or increase his rookie production during his sophomore season like Hutchinson clearly did before his injury which seems like a smart bet that he will due to him having a rare and elite-level fastball (bull-rush) with a couple of underrated, viable change-ups that he can build off of next season.
Chase Young ranks seventh overall in True Pressure Rate with a score of 41.5 which is perhaps the biggest surprise inside the top ten. Young’s production and overall status among his peers is a layered discussion worth digging into considering his background. First, Young hasn’t been able to fully reclaim the explosiveness that he had when he won defensive rookie of the year in 2020 due to the ruptured patella tendon and ACL tear suffered in 2021, but has quietly developed into an above average, quality rusher nonetheless. Young’s underrated power and ability to adapt on the fly to capture either edge of a tackle allows him to compress the pocket, win quickly in spurts and overwhelm mediocre competition. This led to a monster 12 pressure (10 HQ) performance in Week 14 against Giants backup LT Joshua Ezeudu that spiked his pressure rate but also forces most tackles to respect his power while needing to be dialed in with their set points to avoid getting edged.
Even with a bit of a governor on his explosiveness, Young has clawed his way back from a major lower-leg injury into becoming a solid starter and net positive for a defensive line room.
Top 48 in Total High-Quality Pressures (minimum of 15)
Six rushers had five or more rare HQ pressures:
Myles Garrett - 9
Cameron Heyward - 8
Maliek Collins & Will McDonald - 6
Jalen Carter & Alim McNeil - 5
Garrett, Heyward and Carter are names you would expect to see on this list but it’s the remaining three in Collins, McDonald and McNeil that I want to unpack.
Collins has had arguably the best year you haven’t heard about from any rusher in the league thanks to an incredible 26 total HQ pressures (tied with Cam Heyward for eighth overall) and the second best Pressure Quality Ratio in the league at 2.29 (see the last chart below).
26 of Collins 38 total pressures are high-quality, 1v1 wins, making him one of the most potent pass-rushers in the entire NFL this season
McDonald is an older second-year pro at 25-years old but has shown real promise in his first season as a full-time starter this year. McDonald is a light (236 pounds), wiry, long (34 7/8 arm length) and twitched up rusher with a potent spin move and the coveted ability to use his get-off and bend to turn the corner at nine yards behind the line of scrimmage. While he has gotten pushed around in the run game at a glaring rate (especially earlier this season) he has a top-tier blend of explosiveness and evasiveness that has resulted in him decisively beating some of the best tackles in the league.
McDonald will need to become more of a consistent rusher to increase his volume of production while continuing to fully max out his frame but his ability to beat top competition is a rare commodity that showed up in a real way during his first year as a starter this season.
Despite being two years further into his career than McDonald (year four), McNeil is a year younger at 24. McNeil’s season was cut short due to a torn ACL suffered in Week 15 but his ascension and impact are undeniable thanks to violent hands and overwhelming power
Top 50 in fewest pass-rush snaps per pressure (minimum of 250 PR snaps)
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