Scouting Notebook: Initial thoughts on the 2023 OL Draft Class

Photo via Tyler Wise

Since September 1st, I have been gathering information and laying down the foundation for my draft work on the 2023 O-line draft class for Bleacher Report. We have released two top 100 big boards since that time as well as various community mailbags and even a mock draft with many more iterations of the same and different content still to come. This will include scouting reports on hundreds of players, including roughly 60 offensive linemen written by yours truly. This is the third season I have been a part of the B/R team with a sole focus on the offensive line.

Now that we are in December, I have a good grasp on the upcoming class of offensive linemen and, despite having dozens of players to still study, have reached a point that I can start to lay out an overview/preview of how I see the class so far in the process.

Once the scouting reports start to release over the next month or so leading up to the all-star circuits and combine, you will be able to read in more detail about each player here. Similarly to last year, I will also be doing additional Senior Bowl and combine content for subscribers focused on the O-line class as those events transpire, plus film rooms with top prospects in the class.

Initial observations on the 2023 OL class

OL with initial grades and at least two games studied:

• Penn State’s redshirt sophomore sensation LT Olu Fashanu returning to school will have ripple effects for this class and the next. Fashanu was my top ranked tackle and offensive lineman overall due to a rare combination of balance, anchoring ability and refinement as a pass-blocker despite less than a dozen career starts and being just 19 years old. With his return to Happy Valley, the tackle class lost one of its few bonafide first-round picks and the 2024 class gained a special talent at a premium position.

• There have been rumblings since the summer that this class would have less high-end talent (first-round picks) than the 2022 class. While that is likely true, it’s helpful to add some context.

  • The most recent five-year average (2017-2021) for total OL drafted in the first round was 5.2. The prior five-year average (2012-2016) was 6.4.

    • Nine total OL were drafted in the first round of the 2022 draft, much higher than the average of the prior ten drafts and the most since 2013.

  • The most recent five-year average (2017-2021) for OL drafted in rounds 1-3 was 18.2. The prior five-year average (2012-2016) was 18.0.

    • 20 total OL were drafted in the first three rounds of the 2022 draft, slightly above average from the prior ten drafts.

      • So while the 2023 class will almost certainly have less total OL drafted in round one than last year (I’d put the over/under at ‘4’), the 2022 class tied 2013 for the most in ten years.

      • Early in December with about 30 players graded so far and another 30 or so still to watch, the 2023 class looks like a below average to average OL class overall that will likely result in more functional than Pro Bowl-caliber starters.

• Northwestern’s LT Peter Skoronski looks like the most polished overall OL prospect in the class at this point in the process. Skoronski has guard or center measurements with starting left tackle footwork, use of hands, balance and coordination. His arm length was measured around 32 inches in the spring, which would be the shortest of any tackle in the NFL. This is also an issue on film, as he allows certain defenders to establish first meaningful contact on him too often. Skoronski has the center of gravity, balance and use of hands to break contact and sustain a lot of these blocks, but it will likely be a bigger issue in the NFL, especially at tackle.

  Right now I lean towards more of a Joe Thuney career arc in the NFL than Rashawn Slater due to more solid-than-great power, but it will be fascinating to see how the NFL ultimately views Skoronski. I personally wouldn’t argue if a team drafted Skoronski to play tackle or guard even if I prefer the latter. I just know I would want him on my O-line and view him as an immediate starter as a rookie.

  • 30 examples showing where Skoronski wins as a run & pass-blocker:

• The next best tackle prospect right now is Ohio State LT Paris Johnson. Johnson is in his first year as a starter at the position after playing guard his first two seasons, including 13 starts at right guard as a sophomore in 2021. Johnson has quickly picked things back up on the blindside after being recruited as a five-star tackle prospect, showing the athletic ability and recovery and movement skills to thrive on an island in pass-protection. Johnson is also an adept zone run-blocker with the finishing skills to stick and sustain on blocks consistently. I have some questions about his ability to anchor and maintain control at the top of the QB’s drop against more advanced rushers, but the physical traits are there to make those necessary improvements over time. I wouldn’t be surprised if teams viewed Johnson as the best tackle in the class when all is said and done due to his combination of size/AA being more prototypical than Skoronski’s.

  • The Johnson/Skoronski debate seems to be shaping up to be a classic ‘ceiling vs. floor’ conversation. Skoronski is more polished technically with a higher floor, while Johnson is more physically gifted with more upside. As is the case with most prospects, the situation and what’s around them will have a major say in which player adapts quicker and has a more successful pro career. It is also important to point out that Johnson is in his first year at left tackle whereas Skoronski has three years at the position, signaling there’s more room to improve for Johnson.

    • 23 examples showing where Johnson wins from his 2022 film:

• Florida RG O’Cyrus Torrence is a 6’5” 347 pound hulking battering ram with ability to deliver and absorb force at a starter-level.